Whisky Cask Assessment
WHISKEY CASK GROUP  ·  PRIVATE CASK INTELLIGENCE
Cask Assessment  ·  Two-Exit Model
Private whisky cask intelligence

Cask Assessment — Two-Exit Model

Set the variables and watch both exits update live. Exit B assumes your own brand — distillery naming rights are never assumed.

1 · Variables

Cask & purchase

Holding & selling costs

Exit B — own brand no naming rights

Named-distillery comps ~£75; an unproven own brand typically lands £45–65 until established.

Sales mix & market

Benchmark: Casks Galore Ardmore 2019 — £3,625.55 ÷ 122.9 OLA = £29.50/OLA, ~7 yrs (dealer ASKING, not an achieved sale). Agents refresh on Generate. Sensitivities shown in the report: age exponent 1.0–1.3, naming discount 10–20%, realisation 65–85%.

Distillery Profile & Investment Rating

Inverness Aberdeen Edinburgh Glasgow SPEYSIDE HIGHLAND LOWLAND ISLAY CAMPBELTOWN ORKNEY

Investment rating — cask resale (12 / 15 / 18 yr exits, central assumptions)

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HIGH RISKFULLY PRICEDFAIRATTRACTIVE

2 · Cask today

All alcohol figures are ESTIMATES from one consistent assumption — LPA declines 2%/yr from the original OLA (bulk litres and ABV are derived, not separately decayed, so alcohol loss is not double-counted). Commission an actual regauge before relying on any valuation. Valuation ranges span age exponents 1.0–1.3, naming discount 10–20% and realisation 65–85%. The prepaid storage & insurance is a package benefit shown separately — it is not added into the £/OLA valuation. On these numbers the purchase price appears fair to attractive against the live dealer listing — but not conclusively below wholesale value, because the comparable is an unachieved dealer asking price and this cask lacks naming rights.

3 · Exit A — sell the cask

Net profit to the owner after realisation discount, commission, storage and purchase price. Age growth and market movement are modelled SEPARATELY: value develops with age on a power curve (central exponent 1.15, sensitivity 1.0–1.3 — a modelling choice, not an industry standard), then the external market applies −15% (weak) / 0% (flat) / +20% (strong). Bars use central realisation (75% of dealer ask) and the entered commission. No growth is guaranteed. Table below shows the full central breakdown per exit age.

3b · Market Scenarios — flat / recovery / back to 2021 peak

Upside scenario analysis — NOT the central forecast. Broker guides and index history suggest workhorse cask values sit roughly 30–50% below the 2021–22 peak (e.g. ~9yo Glenrothes £6,250 achieved Apr 2021). The peak scenario assumes prices fully recover to that level; recovery is half-way there. The market could equally fall further — no recovery is guaranteed. 2021 peak premium vs today: %

4 · Exit B — bottle under your own brand

The blueprint already exists: independent own-brand single-cask lines prove this play — a single cask, an original label, no distillery naming rights needed. Your cask can follow the same route under the WCG banner.
Left: where the money goes. Right: revenue by channel at your sales mix. Duty applies only on the UK route — export under bond pays no UK duty or VAT (destination taxes apply).
Commercialisation routes (pick one when the time comes): build a label like Mythical Beasts and sell via your own channels + trade · white-label the run to an established independent bottler · revenue-share with a bottling partner · export the bottled run to a licensed distributor. UK direct-to-consumer requires a licence; the mix above lets you model any blend.

5 · Exit A vs Exit B

Net profit at each exit age. Exit A shown at the moderate scenario; Exit B at your current mix, price and route.

6 · P&L — full statement at chosen exit

7 · Model assumptions & data sources

Live market data: this page models from the benchmarks below. For a fresh go-to-market pass — agents re-checking today's duty rate, wholesale index, cask comps and bottle prices, returned as a full PDF with findings, sources and assumptions — use the Generate market assessment button at the top.

Agents working — going to market

Initialising research agents…